In January, there were two discussions in the United Nations Security Council that are important to Refugees International’s work.  The discussion on Somalia was particularlydisappointing, but we were pleased that the UN Security Council is finally looking at how to respond to the escalating violence in south Sudan.

Refugees International is deeply concerned about the deteriorating humanitarian and human rights situation in Somalia. The UN and the broader international community seem unable to come up with a coherent policy that will alleviate the suffering of the Somali people.  There are over 1.5 million internally displaced people in Somalia, and the UN is expecting these numbers to increase.  Almost 50 percent of the population needs humanitarian assistance.  Despite the dire humanitarian needs, funding has decreased, and continued attacks on humanitarian aid workers make the delivery of assistance almost impossible. In addition, the conflict in Yemen and a closed Kenyan border make it difficult for Somalis to seek refuge.  

While it’s true that there are no easy answers to the problem of Somalia, the Security Council continues to wring its hands without providing much-needed leadership there. (The issue of piracy is an exception.)  The UN’s current strategy for Somalia is a three-phased approach that is dependent on the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to: support Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG), provide assistance to Somali security institutions, and increase security in Mogadishu to allow for thedelivery of humanitarian assistance. In the next phase, the UN will enter Mogadishu with a “light footprint.”  Once this small UN presence is acceptable toall parties and security improves, the UN will make plans to deploy a larger UN peacekeeping mission.  While this strategy is fine in theory, there has been little progress in actually implementing it, and AMISOM, on which the strategy is premised, is increasingly coming under attack.

The Secretary General’s Special Representative on Somalia briefed the Security Council, and in the discussion that followed, the Security Council continued to accept this three-phased approach as the framework for its response. The Security Council also just authorized an extension of the mandate of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).  Both the report of the Secretary General and the extension of AMISOM’s mandate provided an opportunity for the Security Council to reconsider its approach to Somalia, but this did not happen.  The AMISOM mandate, which is first approved by the African Union, was renewed without any changes.

The Security Council also recently discussed Sudan. With the mandate of the UN PeacekeepingMission in Sudan (UNMIS) set to expire at the end of April, these discussions set the tone for the deliberations that will be a part of the mandate renewal process.

Refugees International’s current work on South Sudan focuses on the urgent need for contingency planning in the likely case that displacement and violence will increase in the coming year. In the past year,over 350,000 people were displaced and around 2,500 civilians were killed. In most of these cases, UNMIS has not done enough to protect people.  The UNMIS mandate is quite unclear on how and when to protect civilians from violence, as the mission's first priority is tomonitor the implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement. 

For the past two years, as violent attacks on civilians have increased, RI has been calling on UNMIS to do more to protect people, and this message has finally caught the attention of most Security Council members. In addition, some Security Council members have called on the UN to improve contingency planning. Based on our discussions with Security Council members, there is widespread support for strengthening UNMIS’s responsibilities toprotect civilians, but there is also recognition that with a budget of $1 billion, resources for UNMIS will not increase.

This is a problem. There is a very real possibility of violence, both within the south and between the north and the south.  In order for UNMIS, which currently has a force of 10,000 spread over an area the size of France, to effectively provide protection, changing its mandate alone will not do much to help. The peacekeepers must be given new resources to actually fulfill the tasks assigned to them.